Match context

The upcoming match between Palmeiras and Santos is scheduled for 27.08.2026 00:30 in Copa Do Brasil. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDDLWWLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Santos recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWLWDWDW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Santos recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Palmeiras or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.35%, 25.21% and 16.44%. The model momentum difference is 41.91 points in favour of Palmeiras. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Palmeiras +0.25 / Santos -0.25 supports Santos by an average 1.84 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 43 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Palmeiras at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Santos away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 5.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 5.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Palmeiras and Santos ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Palmeiras at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Palmeiras received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Santos away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 5 total cards per match. In this game, Santos received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 100%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Santos at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.84 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.