Match context

The upcoming match between Newcastle and West Brom is scheduled for 26.08.2026 18:45 in League Cup. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Newcastle recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLLWLDWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. West Brom recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWLDW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Newcastle recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and West Brom recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 94%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Newcastle to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.81%, 18.72% and 12.48%. The model momentum difference is 56.33 points in favour of Newcastle. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.42%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Newcastle +0.5 / West Brom -0.5 supports Newcastle by an average 1.13 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 17, score 82/100, 81.81% group success rate across 1996 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for West Brom away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Newcastle and West Brom ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.9 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 94%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for West Brom away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, West Brom received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Newcastle at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.13 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 17. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.