Match context

The upcoming match between Carabobo FC and Metropolitanos FC is scheduled for 16.08.2026 23:00 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Carabobo FC are in position 8 with 3 points after 22 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWL. Metropolitanos FC are in position 2 with 9 points after 21 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWW.

Recent results

Carabobo FC recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWLDWWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Metropolitanos FC recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLDWDWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Carabobo FC recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and Metropolitanos FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.23; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 97%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Carabobo FC or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.14%, 24.92% and 17.94%. The model momentum difference is 39.20 points in favour of Carabobo FC. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Carabobo FC 0 / Metropolitanos FC 0 supports Carabobo FC by an average 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 95/100, 90% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Carabobo FC at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.30 red cards and 2.70 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 50.0%, 30.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 20 completed matches (95.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Metropolitanos FC away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 83.3%, 66.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 15 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Carabobo FC and Metropolitanos FC ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Carabobo FC at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards and 2.7 total cards per match. In this game, Carabobo FC received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Metropolitanos FC away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Metropolitanos FC received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Carabobo FC at 0. The stored market movement was 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.