Match context

The upcoming match between Comerciantes and Minas is scheduled for 22.08.2026 20:15 in Segunda División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Comerciantes are in position 1 with 19 points after 11 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWD. Minas are in position 8 with 8 points after 11 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLL.

Recent results

Comerciantes recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWDLDWDD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Minas recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLLDWLL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Comerciantes or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.54%, 26.46% and 18.00%. The model momentum difference is 37.55 points in favour of Comerciantes. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.15 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -5.69%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Comerciantes at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 13 completed matches (38.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Minas away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 6.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 6.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 12 completed matches (25.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Comerciantes and Minas ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Comerciantes at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Comerciantes received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Minas away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 6 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 6 total cards per match. In this game, Minas received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 100%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.