Match context

The upcoming match between SC Freiburg and Motherwell is scheduled for 27.08.2026 16:45 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

SC Freiburg recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLWLWD. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Motherwell recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDDWWWLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, SC Freiburg recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Motherwell recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as SC Freiburg to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 75.15%, 14.67% and 10.19%. The model momentum difference is 64.96 points in favour of SC Freiburg. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.32%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Motherwell away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 5 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between SC Freiburg and Motherwell ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Motherwell away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Motherwell received 1 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.