Match context

The upcoming match between Pafos and Dinamo Tirana is scheduled for 27.08.2026 17:00 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Pafos recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWLLLDWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Dinamo Tirana recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLWDWLWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Pafos recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Dinamo Tirana recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Pafos to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.14%, 20.26% and 9.60%. The model momentum difference is 60.54 points in favour of Pafos. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.82%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Away +1.5. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 74/100, 74.19% bucket win rate across 496 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Dinamo Tirana away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 5.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 7 completed matches (57.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Pafos and Dinamo Tirana ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Dinamo Tirana away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 5 total cards per match. In this game, Dinamo Tirana received 6 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 6 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 100%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Dinamo Tirana at +1.5. At the final score of 4-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.