Match context

The upcoming match between Benfica and Aarhus is scheduled for 20.08.2026 19:00 in UEFA Europa League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Benfica recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWWLWLW. The averages are 3.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aarhus recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDWDLWLW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Benfica to win with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 79.55%, 13.30% and 7.16%. The model momentum difference is 72.39 points in favour of Benfica. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.93%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Benfica 0 / Aarhus 0 supports Benfica by an average 2.27 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 79.80% group success rate across 614 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Benfica at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Benfica and Aarhus ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Benfica at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Benfica received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Benfica at 0. The stored market movement was 2.27 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.