Match context

The upcoming match between Liverpool Montevideo and Cerro is scheduled for 21.08.2026 22:00 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Liverpool Montevideo are in position 1 with 6 points after 22 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW. Cerro are in position 2 with 6 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW.

Recent results

Liverpool Montevideo recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWLDWDLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cerro recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWLLWLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Liverpool Montevideo recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Cerro recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 93%; over 9.5 corners — 83%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Liverpool Montevideo or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.22%, 25.67% and 17.11%. The model momentum difference is 40.11 points in favour of Liverpool Montevideo. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Liverpool Montevideo -0.5 / Cerro +0.5 supports Liverpool Montevideo by an average 1.02 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Liverpool Montevideo at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 60.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 21 completed matches (57.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Cerro away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.57 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.86 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 11 of 20 completed matches (55.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Liverpool Montevideo and Cerro ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Liverpool Montevideo at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.02 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 4 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.