Match context

The upcoming match between Club Nacional and Progreso is scheduled for 23.08.2026 21:30 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Club Nacional are in position 14 with 0 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LL. Progreso are in position 15 with 0 points after 22 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is LL.

Recent results

Club Nacional recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLLDWLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Progreso recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLLWLLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Club Nacional recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Progreso recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Club Nacional to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.54%, 21.21% and 14.25%. The model momentum difference is 50.29 points in favour of Club Nacional. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.93%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.42, score 94/100, 100% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Club Nacional at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.40 red cards and 3.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 40.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 40.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 15 completed matches (53.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Progreso away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.71 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 12 of 23 completed matches (52.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Club Nacional and Progreso ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Club Nacional at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.4 red cards and 3.4 total cards per match. In this game, Club Nacional received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 40%, and a red card in 40%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Progreso away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.71 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Progreso received 5 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 6 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 28.6%.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.