Match context

The upcoming match between Lech Poznan and FC Thun is scheduled for 20.08.2026 17:00 in UEFA Europa League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Lech Poznan recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLDWWWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Thun recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLWDLD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Lech Poznan or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.90%, 23.92% and 18.18%. The model momentum difference is 39.72 points in favour of Lech Poznan. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Lech Poznan -0.25 / FC Thun +0.25 supports Lech Poznan by an average 1.81 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 80.40% group success rate across 2628 observations). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 77.95% bucket win rate across 440 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Lech Poznan at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Thun away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Lech Poznan and FC Thun ended 7-0. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 5 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lech Poznan at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Lech Poznan received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Thun away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, FC Thun received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Lech Poznan at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.81 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 7-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.