Match context

The upcoming match between Al-Karma and Naft is scheduled for 09.09.2026 19:00 in Iraqi League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Al-Karma are in position 2 with 11 points. The stored form sequence is WWDWD. Naft are in position 4 with 9 points. The stored form sequence is WDDDW.

Recent results

Al-Karma recorded 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWDWDDWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Naft recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDWWWDDL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Al-Karma recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Naft recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 25% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Al-Karma or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.88%, 28.12% and 18.00%. The model momentum difference is 35.89 points in favour of Al-Karma. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.98%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Al-Karma -0.25 / Naft +0.25 supports Naft by an average 1.79 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.02).

What happened in the match

The match between Al-Karma and Naft ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.25 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Naft at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.79 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.02. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.