Match context

The upcoming match between Erbil and Diyala is scheduled for 08.09.2026 15:45 in Iraqi League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Erbil are in position 1 with 11 points. The stored form sequence is DWWDW. Diyala are in position 12 with 5 points. The stored form sequence is LDDLW.

Recent results

Erbil recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWDWWWWLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Diyala recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLWWLLLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Erbil recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Diyala recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Erbil to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.93%, 24.05% and 15.03%. The model momentum difference is 45.90 points in favour of Erbil. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.83%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Erbil and Diyala ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 total goals, while this match produced 2. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.