Match context

The upcoming match between Libertad Asuncion and Club Sp. San Lorenzo is scheduled for 24.08.2026 21:30 in Division Profesional - Clausura. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Libertad Asuncion are in position 2 with 12 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWW. Club Sp. San Lorenzo are in position 12 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD.

Recent results

Libertad Asuncion recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLWWLLLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Club Sp. San Lorenzo recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDWDWLL. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Libertad Asuncion recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Club Sp. San Lorenzo recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Libertad Asuncion to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.09%, 21.92% and 11.98%. The model momentum difference is 54.11 points in favour of Libertad Asuncion. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.11%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

4 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 94/100, 85% bucket win rate across 20 observations). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 76/100, 75.53% bucket win rate across 470 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 13, score 78/100, 77.75% group success rate across 3060 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Libertad Asuncion at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Club Sp. San Lorenzo away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 66.7%. Season card data is available for 4 of 5 completed matches (80.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Libertad Asuncion and Club Sp. San Lorenzo ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.9 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Libertad Asuncion at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Libertad Asuncion received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Club Sp. San Lorenzo away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Club Sp. San Lorenzo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 66.7%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 13. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.