Match context

The upcoming match between Bari and AZ Picerno is scheduled for 01.09.2026 19:00 in Coppa Italia Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Bari recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDDWWLLL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. AZ Picerno recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLWWDLD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari recorded 5 wins, there were 0 draws, and AZ Picerno recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Bari to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.20%, 22.44% and 14.36%. The model momentum difference is 48.84 points in favour of Bari. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.25%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 80.21% bucket win rate across 581 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Bari and AZ Picerno ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.