Match context

The upcoming match between Stenhousemuir and Heart Of Midlothian is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:45 in League Cup. The listed venue is Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Stenhousemuir recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDDDWW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Heart Of Midlothian recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDDWDWLL. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Stenhousemuir recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Heart Of Midlothian recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Heart Of Midlothian to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.02%, 18.98% and 71.00%. The model momentum difference is 60.98 points in favour of Heart Of Midlothian. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.83%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stenhousemuir 0 / Heart Of Midlothian 0 supports Heart Of Midlothian by an average 2.00 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.75% bucket win rate across 553 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stenhousemuir at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 5 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stenhousemuir and Heart Of Midlothian ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stenhousemuir at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Stenhousemuir received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Heart Of Midlothian at 0. The stored market movement was 2 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.