Match context

The upcoming match between Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo is scheduled for 09.09.2026 00:30 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sao Paulo are in position 1 with 12 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDDW.

Recent results

Boca Juniors recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWDWDWDWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sao Paulo recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWDDLDLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Boca Juniors or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.47%, 31.40% and 17.13%. The model momentum difference is 34.35 points in favour of Boca Juniors. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.52%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Boca Juniors -0.25 / Sao Paulo +0.25 supports Sao Paulo by an average 1.98 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 26 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.05).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Boca Juniors at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sao Paulo away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Boca Juniors at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Boca Juniors received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sao Paulo away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sao Paulo received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sao Paulo at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.98 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.05. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.