Match context

The upcoming match between Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol is scheduled for 13.09.2026 16:00 in Super Liga. The listed venue is Complexul Sportiv Raional, Orhei. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Milsami Orhei are in position 6 with 14 points after 11 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLD. Sheriff Tiraspol are in position 2 with 22 points after 11 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWDW.

Recent results

Milsami Orhei recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLDDDWLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sheriff Tiraspol recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDLWLWLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Milsami Orhei recorded 1 wins, there were 5 draws, and Sheriff Tiraspol recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Sheriff Tiraspol (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.93%, 24.23% and 57.84%. The model momentum difference is 39.91 points in favour of Sheriff Tiraspol. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.90%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Milsami Orhei 0 / Sheriff Tiraspol 0 supports Milsami Orhei by an average 1.61 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.27, score 84/100, 83.87% bucket win rate across 93 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Milsami Orhei at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 11 completed matches (90.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Sheriff Tiraspol away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 11 completed matches (72.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Milsami Orhei at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.8 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.8 total cards per match. In this game, Milsami Orhei received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sheriff Tiraspol away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sheriff Tiraspol received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Milsami Orhei at 0. The stored market movement was 1.61 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.27. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.