Match context

The upcoming match between Səbail and Mingəçevir is scheduled for 10.09.2026 12:30 in Birinci Dasta. The listed venue is ASCO Arena, Baku. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Səbail are in position 3 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is D. Mingəçevir are in position 6 with 0 points.

Recent results

Səbail recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWWWWLWD. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mingəçevir recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLWLWWW. The averages are 2.70 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Səbail recorded 4 wins, there were 0 draws, and Mingəçevir recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Səbail or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.33%, 26.51% and 17.17%. The model momentum difference is 39.16 points in favour of Səbail. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.05%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Səbail 0 / Mingəçevir 0 supports Səbail by an average 15.28 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 79/100, 78.59% bucket win rate across 509 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Səbail and Mingəçevir ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Səbail at 0. The stored market movement was 15.28 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.