Match context

The upcoming match between Fajr Sepasi and Mes Shahr-e Babak is scheduled for 03.09.2026 15:30 in Persian Gulf Pro League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Fajr Sepasi are in position 7 with 5 points. The stored form sequence is WDD. Mes Shahr-e Babak are in position 14 with 2 points. The stored form sequence is DDL.

Recent results

Fajr Sepasi recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDDLWLWLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mes Shahr-e Babak recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLWDWWLD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fajr Sepasi recorded 1 wins, there were 5 draws, and Mes Shahr-e Babak recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 28.6% of those matches, while 14.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Fajr Sepasi or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 44.14%, 36.19% and 19.67%. The model momentum difference is 24.47 points in favour of Fajr Sepasi. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with 10Bet. The stored estimated EV is -10.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Fajr Sepasi at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 4 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Fajr Sepasi and Mes Shahr-e Babak ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 1 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 85.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fajr Sepasi at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Fajr Sepasi received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.