Match context

The upcoming match between Fenix and Miramar is scheduled for 30.08.2026 13:00 in Segunda División. The listed venue is Parque Capurro, Montevideo. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Fenix are in position 8 with 18 points after 19 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDWL. Miramar are in position 14 with 14 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLL.

Recent results

Fenix recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDDWLWLD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Miramar recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLLLLDWL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenix recorded 1 wins, there were 4 draws, and Miramar recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Fenix or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.02%, 26.22% and 18.76%. The model momentum difference is 36.26 points in favour of Fenix. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Fenix 0 / Miramar 0 supports Fenix by an average 3.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.02).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Fenix at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 22 completed matches (27.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Miramar away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.50 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 20 completed matches (10.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Fenix and Miramar ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.4 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fenix at 0. The stored market movement was 3.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.02. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.