Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC is scheduled for 30.08.2026 23:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Olímpico de la UCV, Caracas. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo La Guaira are in position 2 with 9 points after 21 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLW. Estudiantes de Merida FC are in position 6 with 7 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWD.

Recent results

Deportivo La Guaira recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWLLWLD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Estudiantes de Merida FC recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDLLLLW. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Deportivo La Guaira recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Estudiantes de Merida FC recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo La Guaira to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.97%, 23.65% and 14.38%. The model momentum difference is 47.60 points in favour of Deportivo La Guaira. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Deportivo La Guaira 0 / Estudiantes de Merida FC 0 supports Deportivo La Guaira by an average 1.07 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportivo La Guaira at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.86 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 4.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 71.4%, 71.4% and 57.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 42.9%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Estudiantes de Merida FC away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.78 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 77.8%, 44.4% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 18 of 20 completed matches (90.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo La Guaira at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.86 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 4.29 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo La Guaira received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 2.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 71.4% of matches, 5+ in 57.1%, and a red card in 42.9%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Estudiantes de Merida FC away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.78 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.22 total cards per match. In this game, Estudiantes de Merida FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.22 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 77.8% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 22.2%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Deportivo La Guaira at 0. The stored market movement was 1.07 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.