Match context

The upcoming match between South Melbourne and Lions is scheduled for 15.09.2026 09:30 in Australia Cup. The listed venue is Lakeside Stadium, Melbourne. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

South Melbourne recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLWDWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lions recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWWDWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as South Melbourne or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.32%, 22.60% and 18.08%. The model momentum difference is 41.24 points in favour of South Melbourne. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.61%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair South Melbourne 0 / Lions 0 supports South Melbourne by an average 1.63 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Lions away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 3 completed matches (33.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between South Melbourne and Lions ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lions away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Lions received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported South Melbourne at 0. The stored market movement was 1.63 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.