Match context

The upcoming match between El Nacional and 22 de Julio is scheduled for 12.09.2026 00:00 in Liga Pro Serie B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
El Nacional are in position 12 with 12 points after 20 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDLW. 22 de Julio are in position 11 with 15 points after 20 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

El Nacional recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLWWDLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. 22 de Julio recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLWLLL. The averages are 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, El Nacional recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and 22 de Julio recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as El Nacional or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.10%, 22.98% and 19.92%. The model momentum difference is 37.18 points in favour of El Nacional. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair El Nacional 0 / 22 de Julio 0 supports El Nacional by an average 1.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.27, score 83/100, 83.33% bucket win rate across 90 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for El Nacional at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 24 completed matches (8.3% coverage). The discipline profile for 22 de Julio away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 21 completed matches (14.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between El Nacional and 22 de Julio ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported El Nacional at 0. The stored market movement was 1.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.27. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.