Match context

The upcoming match between Estrela do Norte and Audax São Mateus is scheduled for 12.09.2026 19:00 in Capixaba B. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Estrela do Norte are in position 1 with 22 points after 4 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. Audax São Mateus are in position 4 with 16 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD.

Recent results

Estrela do Norte recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDWWWWL. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 0.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Audax São Mateus recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLWLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Estrela do Norte recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Audax São Mateus recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Estrela do Norte or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.07%, 22.79% and 19.15%. The model momentum difference is 38.92 points in favour of Estrela do Norte. The input data quality score is 72/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.16 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -6.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Estrela do Norte and Audax São Mateus ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.