Match context

The upcoming match between Progreso and Cerro is scheduled for 13.09.2026 13:00 in Primera División. The listed venue is Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Progreso are in position 11 with 6 points after 5 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLL. Cerro are in position 4 with 10 points after 5 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWW.

Recent results

Progreso recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLLLLWL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cerro recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLWWLWW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Progreso recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Cerro recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Progreso at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.83 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 4.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 83.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 15 of 27 completed matches (55.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Cerro away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 3.38 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 3.63 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 87.5%, 25.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 27 completed matches (48.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Progreso and Cerro ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Progreso at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.83 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 4.33 total cards per match. In this game, Progreso received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 2.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cerro away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 3.38 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 3.63 total cards per match. In this game, Cerro received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.63 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 87.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 25%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.