Match context

The upcoming match between Penarol and Albion FC is scheduled for 13.09.2026 22:30 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Penarol are in position 10 with 6 points after 4 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDW. Albion FC are in position 16 with 0 points after 5 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Penarol recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWDWWWWD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Albion FC recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDLLLDLD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Penarol recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Albion FC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Penarol to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.61%, 24.69% and 12.70%. The model momentum difference is 49.91 points in favour of Penarol. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Penarol at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.29 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 42.9% and 42.9% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 42.9%. Season card data is available for 12 of 26 completed matches (46.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Albion FC away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.43 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9% and 28.6% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 14 of 27 completed matches (51.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Penarol and Albion FC ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.25 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Penarol at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.29 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. In this game, Penarol received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.71 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 42.9%, and a red card in 42.9%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Albion FC away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.43 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 3.71 total cards per match. In this game, Albion FC received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.71 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 71.4% of matches, 5+ in 28.6%, and a red card in 28.6%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.