Match context

The upcoming match between Compostela and Derio is scheduled for 09.09.2026 17:00 in Copa Federacion. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Compostela recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWDWWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Derio recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLWLWWW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Compostela or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.40%, 25.14% and 16.46%. The model momentum difference is 41.94 points in favour of Compostela. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -4.76%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 11.80, score 85/100, 85.25% group success rate across 122 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Compostela and Derio ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 11.8. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.