Match context

The upcoming match between Botafogo PB and Floresta is scheduled for 12.09.2026 20:00 in Serie C. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Botafogo PB are in position 1 with 33 points after 15 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Floresta are in position 5 with 30 points after 15 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWL.

Recent results

Botafogo PB recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDDWWWWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Floresta recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWLDDDWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Botafogo PB recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and Floresta recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.88; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Botafogo PB or draw (1X) with 85% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.01%, 26.52% and 15.47%. The model momentum difference is 42.54 points in favour of Botafogo PB. The input data quality score is 75/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -3.64%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Botafogo PB 0 / Floresta 0 supports Floresta by an average 1.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Botafogo PB at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Floresta away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 3.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 37.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Botafogo PB and Floresta ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Botafogo PB at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Botafogo PB received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.86 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Floresta away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 3.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.13 total cards per match. In this game, Floresta received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 37.5%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Floresta at 0. The stored market movement was 1.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.