Match context

The upcoming match between Ilves and FF Jaro is scheduled for 08.09.2026 15:00 in Veikkausliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ilves are in position 9 with 25 points after 18 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWL. FF Jaro are in position 11 with 15 points after 18 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Ilves recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWLLWWL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. FF Jaro recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLWDWLD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ilves recorded 6 wins, there were 0 draws, and FF Jaro recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 44.4% of those matches, while 77.8% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ilves to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.40%, 22.00% and 17.60%. The model momentum difference is 42.80 points in favour of Ilves. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 79.76% group success rate across 3019 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ilves at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 1.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 40.0%, 10.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 22 completed matches (81.8% coverage). The discipline profile for FF Jaro away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.78 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 44.4%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 22 completed matches (77.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ilves and FF Jaro ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ilves at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 1.6 total cards per match. In this game, Ilves received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 10% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FF Jaro away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.78 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. In this game, FF Jaro received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.22 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.