Match context

The upcoming match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen is scheduled for 27.10.2026 19:45 in DFB Pokal. The listed venue is SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Borussia Dortmund recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLDWWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Werder Bremen recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLWDWLWL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Werder Bremen recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Borussia Dortmund to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.90%, 19.72% and 13.38%. The model momentum difference is 53.52 points in favour of Borussia Dortmund. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Borussia Dortmund 0 / Werder Bremen 0 supports Werder Bremen by an average 1.50 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.86% group success rate across 2029 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Werder Bremen away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.6 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Werder Bremen away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Werder Bremen received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Werder Bremen at 0. The stored market movement was 1.5 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.