Match context

The upcoming match between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart is scheduled for 28.10.2026 17:00 in DFB Pokal. The listed venue is Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

SC Paderborn 07 recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWWLLDWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. VfB Stuttgart recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWWWWLLW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, SC Paderborn 07 recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and VfB Stuttgart recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as VfB Stuttgart to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.45%, 22.52% and 61.03%. The model momentum difference is 44.58 points in favour of VfB Stuttgart. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.55 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair SC Paderborn 07 0 / VfB Stuttgart 0 supports SC Paderborn 07 by an average 1.24 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 32 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for VfB Stuttgart away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.1 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for VfB Stuttgart away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, VfB Stuttgart received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported SC Paderborn 07 at 0. The stored market movement was 1.24 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.