Match context

The upcoming match between Rot-Weiß Essen and RB Leipzig is scheduled for 27.10.2026 17:00 in DFB Pokal. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Rot-Weiß Essen recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDDDWWWD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. RB Leipzig recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWLWLLW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Essen recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and RB Leipzig recorded 1 wins. The average total was 5 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as RB Leipzig to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 9.38%, 12.50% and 78.13%. The model momentum difference is 68.75 points in favour of RB Leipzig. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.25%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Away -2. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.03% group success rate across 648 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Rot-Weiß Essen at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for RB Leipzig away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 1 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Rot-Weiß Essen and RB Leipzig ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rot-Weiß Essen at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Rot-Weiß Essen received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for RB Leipzig away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, RB Leipzig received 5 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 6 in total. That was 5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported RB Leipzig at -2. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.