Match context

The upcoming match between Vikingur Reykjavik and Keflavik is scheduled for 14.09.2026 19:15 in Úrvalsdeild. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vikingur Reykjavik are in position 1 with 53 points after 22 matches. The season record is 16 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 67 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWD. Keflavik are in position 6 with 28 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 38 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWWL.

Recent results

Vikingur Reykjavik recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWLWWDLD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Keflavik recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWLWLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vikingur Reykjavik recorded 8 wins, there were 2 draws, and Keflavik recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Vikingur Reykjavik to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 75.45%, 14.49% and 10.06%. The model momentum difference is 65.39 points in favour of Vikingur Reykjavik. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.46%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Vikingur Reykjavik 0 / Keflavik 0 supports Vikingur Reykjavik by an average 2.20 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82). At least one goal in the match (quota 17, score 82/100, 81.76% group success rate across 2346 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vikingur Reykjavik at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.29 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 28.6% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 22 completed matches (77.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Keflavik away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.13 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 22 completed matches (72.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vikingur Reykjavik and Keflavik ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 5. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Vikingur Reykjavik at 0. The stored market movement was 2.2 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 17. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.