Match context

The upcoming match between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz is scheduled for 29.10.2026 17:00 in Cup. The listed venue is Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Austria Lustenau recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLWWLWLD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sturm Graz recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLWWLDWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Austria Lustenau recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Sturm Graz recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.17 goals per match. Both teams scored in 16.7% of those matches, while 16.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sturm Graz to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.44%, 20.85% and 64.71%. The model momentum difference is 50.28 points in favour of Sturm Graz. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Austria Lustenau -0.5 / Sturm Graz +0.5 supports Sturm Graz by an average 1.37 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sturm Graz away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 2 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.17 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sturm Graz away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Sturm Graz received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sturm Graz at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.37 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.