Match context

The upcoming match between Aurora and Real Tomayapo is scheduled for 25.10.2026 21:15 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Félix Capriles, Cochabamba. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Aurora are in position 6 with 31 points after 22 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWW. Real Tomayapo are in position 16 with 20 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLLL.

Recent results

Aurora recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWDDWWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Real Tomayapo recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLDWLLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aurora recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Real Tomayapo recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 99%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Aurora to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.14%, 19.51% and 12.36%. The model momentum difference is 55.78 points in favour of Aurora. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Aurora at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 20 of 22 completed matches (90.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Real Tomayapo away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 2.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 17 of 22 completed matches (77.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Aurora and Real Tomayapo ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.4 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aurora at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.89 total cards per match. In this game, Aurora received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Real Tomayapo away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 2.78 total cards per match. In this game, Real Tomayapo received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.22 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 22.2%.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.